How ‘reverse coattails’ can save democracy

Or: why supporting local candidates is the smartest way to beat Trump.

When Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez explained on Friday why she will be supporting the the campaign arm of House Democrats for the first time in career, she offered three clarifying arguments:

• “If Democrats do not retake the House in November, I do not have confidence that a Republican majority would certify the results of a presidential election. The threat of fascism is very real and very serious.”

• “The path to the majority runs through New York State.”

• “Hopefully win the trifecta and try to pass major changes when it comes to health care, education, climate and more.”

This neatly sums up the challenge of 2024:

• We face two futures – fascism that begins with MAGA refusing to accept another loss or a hope for a better democracy.

• The path to saving and building a democracy runs through down-ballot races, even in New York and California.

• If we succeed, all Americans will benefit with progress that will be made, even the ones who hate it when all Americans will benefit.

How do we rise to these challenges? We make democracy a daily thing by connecting what people need to know to what they can do about it. That means making politics personal and, as much as possible, local. (If this sounds good, join us at the earlyworm society.)

This comes from a belief that in a representative democracy like ours the presidency is a lagging indicator of all the work that’s being done on the grassroots level. It’s why you now have the vice-president of the United States traveling the country with some of the fervor and messages that abortion-rights activists have been expressing for decades.

Together, this is our version of the “Reverse Coattails” argument that Run for Something has been making for years. It’s the inverse of the idea that the top-of-the ticket generally dictates how well members of the same party do in that election. That fallacy is why you kept hearing Barack Obama blamed for a loss of a record number of state legislative seats while in office, though you could argue his campaign should have done far more to build up candidates in every race. 

A study after the 2020 election found:

Across states and cycles, we estimate that the size of the effect ranges between a 0.4% and a 2.3% bump in top-of-ticket vote share. In no state or election cycle, did we find a statistically significant effect that running Democrats in state legislative seats negatively impacted top-of-the-ticket performance. While Democratic candidates running in districts that would be otherwise uncontested Republican races may not win those seats, they may provide an important vote share bump in close statewide contests (POTUS, Senate, Governor).

A .4% to 2.3% bump may seem slight, until you remember the results of the closest states in the 2020 election.

1. Georgia: Biden won by .2 percentage points 

2. Arizona: Biden won by .3 percentage points 

3. Wisconsin: Biden won by .6 percentage points

4. Pennsylvania: Biden won by 1.2 percentage points

5. North Carolina: Trump won by 1.3 percentage points 

All within the range of being swayed by Reverse Coattails. This makes it seem that the obvious argument is to spend massively recruiting and running excellent candidates for every office, especially in these key states. Instead, Run for Something’s Amanda Littman seems to be constantly hearing a similar message from big donors: Love Run for Something but gonna focus on the presidency.

There are only two inevitabilities in 2024:

• Joe Biden will get millions more total votes than Donald Trump. How that translates to the electoral college is of course the question that will decide democracy.

• Both candidates, even Trump with all his grifting and legal bills, will have enough money. Biden/Harris’ fundraising has already been spectacular. And you can never ignore the financial incentives for supporting Trump who has the bribery of hundreds of billions in tax cuts for the richest to offer.

And there will be plenty of focus, too much focus, on the top two candidates. And that focus will amp up negative partisanship that makes every race at every level feel national. 

The only hope for breaking through this growing sturm und drang is down-ballot races from the Senate to the House to state legislatures to school board members to library board members to election clerks.

Here’s how “reverse coattails” changes the political landscape:

• Having people who voters can identify with on the ballot could increase turnout.
  A recent Run for Something poll found that  “61% of young Democrats in battleground states say they are more likely to turn out if there’s also a young, progressive candidate running down-ballot.” I’d argue one reason voter turnout is so much higher among older people is that we see people like ourselves on the ballot.

• Talking about issues and actual candidates is far less toxic and alienating than yelling about Trump or Biden.
  One huge reason that earlyworms like you matter is that only 15%-20% of America even follow politics and the rest of the country mostly gets their news ambiently through us. One huge reason most people tune out the news is that the right has spent decades purposely sensationalizing and polarizing it to the point that it’s easier just to assume both sides suck. This sportsball view of politics also activates all-or-nothing rationalizations where your view of an entire party comes from how their presidential candidate has been framed by the right-wing media with the rest of the media playing to that opposition. The antidote is a mass political movement with particular and persuasive candidates at every level trying to make changes for their neighbors. This isn’t just an argument for Democrats. It’s an argument for democracy.

• It’s way cheaper!!!
  An average state legislature seat is about 3% of what a US Senate seat, which while wildly expensive, is a fraction of a presidential race. Also, when you’re talking about a local candidate or issue you inevitably stand out. You’re not just another voice screaming about what Trump just said or yelling  “Jewish Space Lasers!” every time Marjorie Taylor Greene appears. Or maybe you are. Either way, thank you for your service.

This is all tough if not impossible, of course. How to you make local activism alluring from one little group that has to pick and choose from everything that’s going on? We can only try. 

And this week on “How do you feel about democracy?” we’re going to offer the most direct “how to” yet for coming out of this year with no regrets.

Of course, you can always just donate to Run for Something and back dozens of great Democratic Party brand builders who will be the future of the party.