Covid, Continued.

The virus is easier to catch. But easier to survive. And still unpredictable.

NPR Goats & Soda @NPRGoatsandSoda

Omicron variants are more contagious -- even outdoors. Here's how to protect yourself (plus, download and print a free poster!) 😷Mask up if you're in a crowd 🎪Beware of different kinds of outdoor tents 🌡️Check yourself for symptoms npr.org/sections/goats…

npr.orgCoronavirus FAQ: Can I get COVID outdoors? (With printable poster on how to cut risks)We’ve heard for months that chances of catching SARS-CoV-2 outdoors are far less than indoors. Is that still true with highly contagious omicron strains? And if it is, what can you do to stay safe?

It’s the end of July 2022. The coronavirus, in its latest forms, is still going strong. The “experts” now say even if you think you never had it, you probably did.

The case data is increasingly meaningless due to rapid-at-home tests and the under-reporting of results. And we’re getting numb to the death toll. When 100,000 died in the first three months of the pandemic, it was, said the New York Times, “an incalculable loss.” Another 100,000 lives were lost, more quietly, in the last five months.

Anecdotally at least, everyone’s still getting it. Reinfections are common. Re-reinfections are becoming common, too. And while the “experts” say rebound cases after taking Paxlovid are rare, most of the people I know who’ve taken Paxlovid have felt better very quickly, only to have some form of rebound.

Easier to catch, easier to survive

The good news, though, as summed up by President Biden this week:

I’ve just tested negative for COVID-19 after isolating for five days.  Thankfully, I’ll now be able to return to work in person….

When my predecessor got COVID, he had to get helicoptered to Walter Reed Medical Center.  He was severely ill.  Thankfully, he recovered.  When I got COVID, I worked from upstairs of the White House — in the offices upstairs — and — for the — that five-day period. 

The difference is vaccinations, of course, but also three new tools free to all and widely available.  You don’t need to be a President to get these tools used for your defense.  In fact, the same booster shots, the same at-home test, the same treatment that I got is available to you.

Hopefully that’s not just the Paxlovid talking.

Covid is still unpredictable

On Twitter and IRL, I’m still hearing from people whose Covid came back, lingering and causing brain fog or other symptoms for 30-40 days.

One father on Twitter began chronicling his son’s “memory loss odyssey” after his 20-year-old son was hospitalized with Covid and was experiencing the “delirium symptom.”

Legends_Sports @LegendsSports3

This is mind boggling. My son has come down with covid & is experiencing the delirium symptom. He is only 20, student at Rice, smart kid. This has him like he's a 3 year old with memory loss. I kid you not, I have never seen anything like this in my life. Be careful out there.

Legends_Sports @LegendsSports3

Virus has affected the hippocampus, which handles short term memory and spatial memory. Putting him on a steroid for the next three days to see if that helps. White areas are where it’s damaged

The man’s son was home within a few days, but his brain still hasn’t recovered. The most recent Twitter update was on 26 July: “My son is coming along a little at a time, still dealing with the short-term memory but improvements.”

Meanwhile, Ben Cohen of The Banter, who has been detailing his experience with Long Covid, wrote on 19 July:

As my recovery progresses, I feel like I have blocked out much of what I went through early on. The psychological impact of 24/7 nerve and muscle pain combined with extreme fatigue and chronic migraines was one of the worst things I have ever gone through. I am going to re-read my original essay intermittently as a reminder to keep on taking this pandemic seriously, get all necessary updated vaccines for new variants, and help stop the spread of disinformation.

Covid is no joke and not something I’d wish on anyone.

(To avoid forgetting the reality of our national, Trump-created Covid nightmare, re-read my recent 3-part series, starting here.)

On 1 July 2022, NPR’s Melody Schreiber wrote an article about the increased risks of catching Covid outdoors in the age of BA.5:

Outdoor events are way less risky than indoor events when it comes to COVID. They are still, by far, the safest way to gather as the country continues to see high levels of cases and rising hospitalizations.

But “way less risky” is not “zero risk.” There’s still a chance of catching COVID even at an outdoor event — especially as the virus continues evolving to become more transmissible and to break through prior immunity from vaccination or earlier cases.

This week, she reported back on a real-life scenario that affected her own family:

Melody Schreiber @m_scribe

I decided not to attend a family member's small wedding over the weekend, a really difficult decision based in part on the complete lack of Covid precautions. Now several attendees are reporting symptoms and positive tests. I hate that this is where we are.

As she added in a subsequent tweet: “The ceremony was outside, but in an area with poor air circulation.”

Be careful out there

NBC News reports that, in just the past month, New York City’s hospitalization rate is up 70%, while the number of Covid patients in the city’s ICUs has nearly doubled.

In the US as a whole, according to the data on Worldometers, 100,000 Covid deaths occurred between 11 February 2022, when the US death toll surpassed 950,000, and 17 July 2022, when the US toll reached 1,050,000

While those 100,000 deaths occurred over a period of 5 months and a few days, half of them occurred in the 32 days after February 11, while it took four more months for the next 50,000 deaths to occur.

The ratio of cases, though, shows a more consistent pattern: 2 million new cases were recorded in the first 32 days, while 7 million—likely a major undercount—were recorded in the 4 months after.

As Biden pointed out, the chances of surviving Covid are greater than ever. But, exactly as predicted, variants have made the virus more contagious and more vaccine resistant than ever.

A couple of weeks ago, I tweeted a National Geographic graphic that stated: “Both BA.5 and BA.4 are four times more resistant to COVID-19 vaccines and are more likely to cause breakthrough infections.”

This week, the C.D.C. confirmed that the highly contagious BA.5 and the earlier BA.4 variants now account for 95% of the current surge.

Everyone’s getting it. But that doesn’t mean you should.

As Abdullah Shihipar wrote in Slate back in April:

Doing your best to delay infection not only has benefits for yourself; wearing a mask or declining plans that seem too risky also reminds people that we are in a pandemic, as annoying as that fact may be. Those reminders keep the pressure on to develop better therapeutics and vaccines and get them out to people. Maybe they’ll also encourage those around you to be a little more diligent about masking up, or to stay home when they’re sick.

Even if you’ve survived Covid once (or twice), the fact that reinfections can cause worse symptoms, means that, if you can, you should probably avoid catching it again.

And if you’re still a “Covid virgin,” there are plenty of good reasons to try staying that way.

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